Sweden’s Leo Carlsson #21 skates during Preliminary Round - Group A action against Germany at the 2023 IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship at Nokia Arena on May 12, 2023 in Tampere, Finland.
photo: © International Ice Hockey Federation / Andrea Cardin
The annual NHL Entry Draft is always a mix of the known and unknown. Of course, the biggest unknown is that no one knows how these young men drafted will develop—superstar? Mid-level talent? Not NHL quality after all? No one knows.
This year, however, there is one clear known. IIHF Male Player of the Year Connor Bedard will be selected first overall by Chicago, which won the draft lottery a few short weeks ago. It also seems pretty certain that 2023 World Junior Championship teammate Adam Fantilli will be drafted second, and Swedish sensation Leo Carlsson third. Carlsson has played all three levels of hockey in the last 14 months, winning gold with Sweden’s U18 team in 2022, then placing fourth at the 2023 World Juniors and sixth at the recently-completed IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship in Tampere.
And then the unknowns take over. While it seems clear the first round of 32 selections will feature at least half Europeans, no one can say for sure where they will be selected or by whom. We’ll find out on Wednesday, 28 June, when the first round takes place in Nashville, and the next day when rounds 2 to 7 will occur.
Many pundits consider Slovakia’s Dalibor Dvorsky a top-ten selection. A forward playing in Sweden’s second division, he has a great shot and offensive potential, and is responsible on both sides of the puck. His main weakness right now is skating, a very teachable deficiency.
Considered the top-rated defender, David Reinbacher could also make a little history in Nashville next week. He might be the highest-drafted Austrian ever, eclipsing Tomas Vanek who went fifth overall two decades ago. But Reinbacher is also set to join a group of new-wave Austrians ready to make a major impact in the hockey world. Compatriots Marco Rossi was drafted 9th overall by Minnesota three years ago and Marco Kasper was taken 8th overall by Detroit just last year. To have three top-10 picks in four drafts would be a remarkable achievement for the Austrian program. Reinbacher has played in the last two IIHF Ice Hockey World Juniors and started the IIHF World Championship last month before suffering a knee injury four games in, cutting his senior debut short.
Some see Sweden’s Axel Sandin Pelikka as the best blueliner in the draft, however. He is offensively talented and a good skater, but the biggest knock on him is a lack of size and physical ability. Any team selecting him would be wise to let him continue to develop back home for a couple of seasons. His future is bright, but his best years are not in the present. He played both the U18 and U20 this past season and was named IIHF Directorate Best Defender at the former.
Czechia forward Eduard Sale is another talent up front who will go mid-first round, but his stock has slipped over the course of the past season. Sale played for Brno in the top Czech league and struggled to find a consistently high level of play among older and stronger men. He showed talent on occasion, giving rise to optimism his game can develop over time, but he is not a plyer who should be considered NHL material right away. Once considered a top-ten selection, the thinking now is a landing zone in the 15-20 range.
Another Slovak, Samuel Honzek, is also a player to watch. He has the height (6’4”) but needs to fill out before he can use his size effectively. Still, playing in the WHL with the Vancouver Giants this past season, he has proven himself willing to play in the tough areas and work for his scoring chances in close. The sky is the limit, but he represents another work in progress. He played at the last two IIHF World Juniors without recording a point, but his 2023 appearance was cut short by injury.
Tom Willander is another Swedish blueliner who will go in the first round, and although he is a clear second behind Sandin Pelikka his stock has been rising consistently. He showed tremendous skill at the 2023 U18s for Sweden, and after playing in the junior league with Rogle he will play with Boston University this upcoming season in the NCAA. A terrific skater, he can move the puck quickly and is a good decision-maker, using his speed to make up for errors and showing creativity inside the opposition blue line.
Goaltender Michael Hrabal from Czechia is the only puckstopper considered a first-round prospect. He moved to the U.S. and played his draft season with the Omaha Lancers of the USHL, one of the weakest teams in the league but one which, as a result, gave him plenty of time to face a ton of rubber and learn the game on the smaller ice. He’s 6’6”, representative of the new breed of goalies, and will play the coming season in the NCAA with the University of Massachusetts.
Speaking of “only,” it seems the only Finn to be contending for the first-round selection is Kasper Halttunen. Big and strong, he played for HIFK this past season as a 17-year-old, but managed only one assist in 27 games, a sure sign there is work to be done. When he went down to the U20 level, he dominated, cementing his status as power forward just as scouts had expected. Halttunen has the skills to play at an elite level, but he needs to learn the game over time.
And the final unknown of all the unknowns is Russian Matvei Michkov. The 18-year-old hasn’t played an international event since the cancelled 21/22 World Juniors, when he had three goals in two games. Before that, he had 12 goals at the 2021 WM18, helping Russia win silver. This past season with Sochi in the KHL, he had nine goals in 27 games, but scouts are undecided if he is a top-five or top-ten selection—there is no standard to go by for a player who has been out of the IIHF loop for two full years during an important period of development.
The USNTDP will be represented with the likes of Will Smith, Ryan Leonard, Oliver Moore, and Gabe Perreault, all expected to go in the first round, and after Bedard and Fantilli, Canada has several names expected to be called among the first 32, notably Zach Benson, Brayden Yager, Andrew Cristall, Calum Ritchie, Matthew Wood, and Cody Barlow.
All in all, it will make for an exciting evening next week, but we won’t truly know what it all means for several years yet. That’s the joy and the frustration of trying to assess the future talents of 18-year-olds.
This year, however, there is one clear known. IIHF Male Player of the Year Connor Bedard will be selected first overall by Chicago, which won the draft lottery a few short weeks ago. It also seems pretty certain that 2023 World Junior Championship teammate Adam Fantilli will be drafted second, and Swedish sensation Leo Carlsson third. Carlsson has played all three levels of hockey in the last 14 months, winning gold with Sweden’s U18 team in 2022, then placing fourth at the 2023 World Juniors and sixth at the recently-completed IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship in Tampere.
And then the unknowns take over. While it seems clear the first round of 32 selections will feature at least half Europeans, no one can say for sure where they will be selected or by whom. We’ll find out on Wednesday, 28 June, when the first round takes place in Nashville, and the next day when rounds 2 to 7 will occur.
Many pundits consider Slovakia’s Dalibor Dvorsky a top-ten selection. A forward playing in Sweden’s second division, he has a great shot and offensive potential, and is responsible on both sides of the puck. His main weakness right now is skating, a very teachable deficiency.
Considered the top-rated defender, David Reinbacher could also make a little history in Nashville next week. He might be the highest-drafted Austrian ever, eclipsing Tomas Vanek who went fifth overall two decades ago. But Reinbacher is also set to join a group of new-wave Austrians ready to make a major impact in the hockey world. Compatriots Marco Rossi was drafted 9th overall by Minnesota three years ago and Marco Kasper was taken 8th overall by Detroit just last year. To have three top-10 picks in four drafts would be a remarkable achievement for the Austrian program. Reinbacher has played in the last two IIHF Ice Hockey World Juniors and started the IIHF World Championship last month before suffering a knee injury four games in, cutting his senior debut short.
Some see Sweden’s Axel Sandin Pelikka as the best blueliner in the draft, however. He is offensively talented and a good skater, but the biggest knock on him is a lack of size and physical ability. Any team selecting him would be wise to let him continue to develop back home for a couple of seasons. His future is bright, but his best years are not in the present. He played both the U18 and U20 this past season and was named IIHF Directorate Best Defender at the former.
Czechia forward Eduard Sale is another talent up front who will go mid-first round, but his stock has slipped over the course of the past season. Sale played for Brno in the top Czech league and struggled to find a consistently high level of play among older and stronger men. He showed talent on occasion, giving rise to optimism his game can develop over time, but he is not a plyer who should be considered NHL material right away. Once considered a top-ten selection, the thinking now is a landing zone in the 15-20 range.
Another Slovak, Samuel Honzek, is also a player to watch. He has the height (6’4”) but needs to fill out before he can use his size effectively. Still, playing in the WHL with the Vancouver Giants this past season, he has proven himself willing to play in the tough areas and work for his scoring chances in close. The sky is the limit, but he represents another work in progress. He played at the last two IIHF World Juniors without recording a point, but his 2023 appearance was cut short by injury.
Tom Willander is another Swedish blueliner who will go in the first round, and although he is a clear second behind Sandin Pelikka his stock has been rising consistently. He showed tremendous skill at the 2023 U18s for Sweden, and after playing in the junior league with Rogle he will play with Boston University this upcoming season in the NCAA. A terrific skater, he can move the puck quickly and is a good decision-maker, using his speed to make up for errors and showing creativity inside the opposition blue line.
Goaltender Michael Hrabal from Czechia is the only puckstopper considered a first-round prospect. He moved to the U.S. and played his draft season with the Omaha Lancers of the USHL, one of the weakest teams in the league but one which, as a result, gave him plenty of time to face a ton of rubber and learn the game on the smaller ice. He’s 6’6”, representative of the new breed of goalies, and will play the coming season in the NCAA with the University of Massachusetts.
Speaking of “only,” it seems the only Finn to be contending for the first-round selection is Kasper Halttunen. Big and strong, he played for HIFK this past season as a 17-year-old, but managed only one assist in 27 games, a sure sign there is work to be done. When he went down to the U20 level, he dominated, cementing his status as power forward just as scouts had expected. Halttunen has the skills to play at an elite level, but he needs to learn the game over time.
And the final unknown of all the unknowns is Russian Matvei Michkov. The 18-year-old hasn’t played an international event since the cancelled 21/22 World Juniors, when he had three goals in two games. Before that, he had 12 goals at the 2021 WM18, helping Russia win silver. This past season with Sochi in the KHL, he had nine goals in 27 games, but scouts are undecided if he is a top-five or top-ten selection—there is no standard to go by for a player who has been out of the IIHF loop for two full years during an important period of development.
The USNTDP will be represented with the likes of Will Smith, Ryan Leonard, Oliver Moore, and Gabe Perreault, all expected to go in the first round, and after Bedard and Fantilli, Canada has several names expected to be called among the first 32, notably Zach Benson, Brayden Yager, Andrew Cristall, Calum Ritchie, Matthew Wood, and Cody Barlow.
All in all, it will make for an exciting evening next week, but we won’t truly know what it all means for several years yet. That’s the joy and the frustration of trying to assess the future talents of 18-year-olds.