In Tove Jansson’s classic children's book Finn Family Moomintroll, the wise wanderer Snufkin says: “The way I see it, I can own anything on Earth, even the Earth itself, if I say it’s mine.”

In sports, that rings particularly true. In the 2022 IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship gold medal game, host Finland and Canada both have a chance to make a statement and claim global hockey supremacy. But will it be the Olympic champion Finns or the defending World Champion Canadians hoisting the trophy at Nokia Arena on Sunday just minutes from Tampere’s Moomin Museum?

For Finns, the link between the small, white, hippo-like Moomins and hockey is explicit and enduring. Current assistant captain Marko “Morko” Anttila’s nickname derives from the Finnish name for the Groke, an ominous creature in the Moomin books who freezes the ground upon arrival. The towering 37-year-old Ilves and Jokerit veteran has scored or assisted on many of the biggest playoff goals during head coach Jukka Jalonen’s current magical run.

Yet now the Canadians under coach Claude Julien want to script their own storybook ending and win back-to-back world titles for the first time since 2015 (Prague) and 2016 (St. Petersburg). With great young stars like the top line of Pierre-Luc Dubois, Drake Batherson, and Dylan Cozens – who have combined for 38 points and are all vying for the Worlds scoring title – they just may pull it off.

For now, it’s time to separate fact from fiction. This is not an easy final to predict. Here are seven truths to ponder about the Canada-Finland gold medal game (20:20 start local time, 19:20 CET, 1:20pm ET).

1) The trilogy fight is on

It’s the first time in IIHF history that the World Championship features the same two opponents in three consecutive tournament finals.

Finland defeated Canada 3-1 in 2019 in Bratislava on a pair of Antilla goals and netminder Kevin Lankinen’s 43-save performance. After the Covid-19 pandemic cancelled the 2020 Worlds slated for Switzerland, the Canadians avenged themselves on Finland with a 3-2 overtime win in 2021 on Nick Paul’s goal in Riga.

If this was a trilogy fight in heavyweight boxing, we’d be talking about “The Thrilla in Manilla” between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier in 1975. However, on Sunday, the shots will be landed, not on the chin, but at the back of the net.

For consistency, intensity, and skill, you have to admire what Finland has accomplished with a pool of under 28,000 registered male players. And you have to marvel at Canada’s sheer depth as the motherland of hockey – a country that could certainly send three more teams to this tournament and have a shot at winning.

2) Defence wins championships

Through nine games, the Finns (10 goals allowed) have clearly been tighter defensively than Canada (22 goals allowed). In addition to their rigorous, relentless adherence to Jalonen’s defensive system, Suomi has gotten excellent goaltending from Jussi Olkinuora. His 0.86 GAA and 96.0 save percentage lead the Worlds, and his four shutouts are more than any other netminder has recorded at this tournament in the 21st century except Canada’s Cam Talbot (2016).

“He’s a really calm guy in the net and it’s great to play in front of him,” said top Finnish defenceman Miro Heiskanen of the Dallas Stars.

Meanwhile, Canada has made headlines with its 44 goals for, compared to Finland’s 33. But more importantly, Julien’s men have started achieving their defensive potential at the right time. In the medal round, Finland has conceded more goals (five) than Canada (four).

Moreover, ever since Max Friberg gave Sweden the 3-0 quarter-final lead that Canada would overcome for a 4-3 overtime win, the Canadians have allowed only one goal – David Krejci’s power play marker in Czechia’s 6-1 semi-final defeat – in a span of 91:37. 

These teams are well-coached and play hard at both ends. They got here for a reason. What would be shocking is if the final becomes a blowout. Expect the champion to win by a goal or two.

3) No lead is safe

It’s not only the Canadians who stay even-keel enough to rally from deficits. The Finns have trailed in both their playoff games so far. Adam Sykora and Pavol Regenda staked Slovakia to an early 2-0 quarter-final lead, but Finland roared back to win 4-2. The Finns also trailed 1-0 for more than 15 minutes in the first period of their semi-final against the Americans, but kept going and prevailed 4-3.

Of course, you can’t forget how Finland came back from a 1-0 deficit to beat the ROC team 2-1 in February’s Olympic final in Beijing.

So even if either Canada or Finland takes a three-goal lead before the midpoint of the gold medal game, don’t head for the exits or turn off the TV.

Beyond the top line, Canada has more scoring threats up and down the roster, from veterans with more to give like Matt Barzal (2+3=5) and Josh Anderson (1+6=7) to rapidly improving youngsters like Kent Johnson (4+3=7) and Cole Sillinger (3+0=3).

But Finland can counter with point-per-game threats like Mikael Granlund (3+5=8), Sakari Manninen (5+4=9), and Heiskanen (1+4=5). Heiskanen’s fellow defenceman Mikko Lehtonen is having an all-star calibre Worlds with a team-high 10 points.

If there’s a special teams battle, the host nation may have the edge. The teams have strong, equally matched power plays, with Canada going 10-for-29 and Finland 9-for-29. However, the Finns haven’t conceded a single power play goal, whereas Canada has given up eight.

“Usually every game, it seems like we've been in the box to start the games, and it's not helping ourselves,” said Sillinger. “So we just have to stay disciplined, and especially tomorrow playing Finland. They've got a good power play.”

Canada has more of a history of self-belief and fighting to the end, but Jalonen has given the Finns a similar mentality. You can say it again: no lead is safe.

4) Home ice is no guarantee of gold

This tournament is already a success for Finland, and not just because 335,731 enthusiastic fans have attended the 62 games in Tampere and Helsinki prior to Sunday’s final and bronze medal game. It’s also because the Finns are guaranteed a medal on home ice – for the first time in history.

Suomi previously hosted the Worlds in 1965, 1974, 1982, 1991, 1997, 2003, 2012, and 2013. Stunningly, on each of those occasions, Finland finished out of the medals. So this is a nice change.

With that said, the Finns now come to the Worlds expecting to win, and life isn’t easy on host teams. Sure, Sweden broke the 27-year-old “home ice curse” in 2013 when the Sedin twins led Tre Kronor to a 5-1 gold medal win over Switzerland. But that’s still just one host team triumphing in a 34-year span – the Soviets won gold in Moscow in 1986.

Having more than 11,000 fans rooting their guts out will be exciting for the Finns, but it also adds a layer of pressure. Team Canada hopes to shift the energy at Nokia Arena.

“Their crowd's going to be rocking,” said Cozens. “The fans here are great. We saw a little bit in the semi-finals how loud they are, how into the game. What's big for us is to just not let them build momentum off the crowd. Just come out and shut that crowd down.”

5) Canada is strong on the draw

Canada boasts four of the tournament’s top faceoff men right now: Dubois (66.9 percent), Adam Lowry (59.0 percent), Dawson Mercer (58.6 percent), and Nicolas Roy (58.6 percent). That efficacy isn’t just resulting in possession time. On the power play, faceoff wins in the offensive zone directly led to Lowry’s eventual winner and Matt Barzal’s 4-1 marker against Czechia.

The Finns aren’t slouches at the dot themselves. Hannes Bjorninen, who scored the Olympic winner versus the ROC team, is sixth overall (60.7 percent), and captain Valtteri Filppula is respectable too (55.7 percent). But it’ll be intriguing to monitor what Canada generates from faceoff wins on Sunday.

6) Double gold and Triple Gold loom for Finland

Regardless of the circumstances – NHLers or no NHLers, pandemic or no pandemic – it’s never easy to win both an Olympic gold medal and a World Championship gold medal in the same year. Otherwise, more nations than Sweden would have done it (Turin and Riga 2006).

The Finns can follow in their Nordic neighbour’s footsteps on Monday. But there’s another secondary target. Filppula, 38, owns a Stanley Cup ring from the 2008 Detroit Red Wings to go with his gold medal from Beijing. That means he can enter the Triple Gold Club on Sunday. It’s currently home to 11 Canadians, nine Swedes, seven Russians, and two Czechs.

How does that opportunity make the Vantaa-born veteran of 1,056 NHL games feel?

“The main thing is it would be awesome to win with these guys,” said Filppula. “That would be enough. But yeah, at the same time, it would be great to be part of that club as well and finally have a Finn in it. As a player, that is. I think Jere [Lehtinen], our GM, is in the club too but won one as a GM.”

7) It’s not how you start

Whether it’s 1992 in Czechoslovakia under coach Pentti Matikainen or 2016 in Russia under coach Kari Jalonen, long-time Finnish supporters can recall many cases whether their team was seemingly throughout the Worlds – only to fall heartbreakingly short in the final. It’s a tendency that Finland has only started to shed in the last few years.

Conversely, Team Canada fans revel in memories of starting slowly at tournaments, only to save the best for last. You don’t have to go back to 1972 and Paul Henderson’s late Game Eight winner against the Soviet Union in Moscow. Instead, take the 2021 Worlds in Riga, where Canada lost its first three games before taking Finland out in sudden-death in the gold medal game.

Canada has had more stumbles than Finland on the road to 29 May, like falling 6-3 to Switzerland and 3-2 to Denmark – the latter an historic first. But none of that will matter except to hockey nerds if Julien’s team defeats the hosts to stay on top. It’s how you finish off this 10-game march. It’s about bringing the gold home.

It calls to mind the words of Snufkin in Comet in Moominland: “You must go on a long journey before you can really find out how wonderful home is.”