The experienced Americans are a well-oiled machine, looking for a second gold medal in a row.
photo: Andre Ringuette/IIHF
Okay hockey fans, our IIHF.com writers (Lucas Aykroyd and Andrew Podnieks) are back with their thoughts after the quarter-finals. Let’s see what they have to say about the goings-on in Ottawa.
Canada. Ouch. What happened?
Podnieks: The problems have been evident for all to see—lack of scoring and undisciplined play. Canada finished with only 13 goals, their lowest total ever in World Juniors (along with the 1998 team). And penalties? Well, they not only become more and more difficult to kill as they accrue; they also stifle momentum, as we saw in the second period against the Americans. This isn’t the be-all and end-all, but the days of Canada winning with anything less than their best have been over for a while now. Was that loss to Latvia more psychologically damaging than we know? Who’s to say? But that excellent 4-0 win over Finland to start the tournament never led to anything more.
Aykroyd: It’s hard to succeed when you rack up 113 PIM in five games – 34 PIM more than Kazakhstan, the team that got relegated. Even so, the Canadians were right there until the last minute against the Czechs. And so you really have to chalk this one up to their inability to execute offensively. Getting just 13 goals on 205 shots – for a tournament-worst 6.34 shooting percentage – is jaw-dropping. By comparison, last year’s Canadian team, which also came fifth after a heartbreaking quarter-finals loss versus Czechia, had 23 goals on 158 shots (14.5 shooting percentage). You can quibble about the roster construction, as Canadian fans do annually given their great depth. But this team on paper, with the likes of Easton Cowan and Gavin McKenna, could have advanced if it could put the puck in the net.
Who is now the gold-medal favourite?
Aykroyd: The Americans are defending champs and haven’t seriously stumbled, unless you count getting outshot 44-33 and beaten 4-3 in overtime by Finland. With 10 returnees from 2024, that’s a whole lot of “been there, won that” experience. Their big players are stepping up at the right time. They’d be my pick.
Podnieks: It’s hard to argue against the U.S. right now. The only other contender I see is Sweden, which would be a re-match from Gothenburg a year ago. No two countries not named Canada have ever played in consecutive gold-medal games at the World Juniors, so if that happened, perhaps the Swedes can channel their inner disappointment from last year and win. But if they do, I would classify it as an upset. The U.S. have to be the favourites now.
There have been many great goalie performances this year. Who in particular has stood out?
Podnieks: This is pretty easy, I think. Although there have been many good games from the blue ice, Linards Feldbergs is in a class by himself. Consider the game against Canada. He stopped 55 of 57 shots over 65 minutes of game action, and then all eight shooters in the penalty-shot shootout. He has faced a whopping 226 shots in five games (an average of 45 a game), way more than second-most by Petteri Rimpinen (FIN, 169). And seven of the 16 goals he allowed were on the opponents’ power play. Best goalie for sure…and maybe some tournament MVP votes as well.
Aykroyd: Agreed. Unless one goalie steals the show in the semi-finals and gold-medal game, it’s Feldbergs. There’s no way the Latvians upset Canada, 3-2, in a shootout if not for his brilliance. Outshot 39-22 by Germany, Latvia could have missed the playoffs if Feldbergs wasn’t dialed in again. And of course, he kept them in versus a superior Sweden team with 47 saves in the quarter-finals. (That said, I will never forget the aggressive pokechecks of Kazakhstan’s Vladimir Nikitin!)
In the first edition we were asked to predict the tournament scoring leader. How’s that going for you?
Aykroyd: Thanks for asking! I picked James Hagens (4+4=8), and the top U.S. centre is tied for second place in points without even having hit top gear yet. A candidate to go #1 overall in the 2025 NHL Draft, Hagens is the most offensively-gifted skater left in our final four. No guarantees, but he’s looking good.
Podnieks: What about the weather here in Ottawa, eh? More rain than snow. The canal isn’t frozen. Ummm…well…ah…I started by saying no d-man would lead the scoring race, but currently Sweden’s Axel Sandin Pellikka is tied for the lead with nine points and American Cole Hutson one back. However, stubborn I am and Yoda-me says it still won’t be a blueliner. Any points leader candidate has two games remaining, tough games, so there won’t be some big explosion of offense. It’s going to be someone near the top today. I’ll go with Gabe Perreault, who has seven points now.
Let’s talk MVP. We’re down to four teams, and the best of the best are going to have to ramp up their play to get the gold. Who will be the Most Valuable Player of the tournament?
Podnieks: I’m going with a little logic here as a starting point. The four remaining goalies are Petteri Rimpinen (FIN), Michael Hrabal (CZE), Trey Augustine (USA), and Melker Thelin (SWE). So, if it’s a USA-SWE final, it makes sense to me it’s one of Augustine or Thelin, and since we’re looking at making the Americans the likely winners, I’ll go with Trey, playing in his third and final World Juniors and looking for a record-tying third medal.
Aykroyd: Hagens is certainly in the mix, but it’s been a special year for defencemen. Without shirking his duties in his own zone, Hagens’ teammate Cole Hutson has hit remarkable offensive heights (2+6=8), and Swedish captain Axel Sandin Pellikka (4+5=9) also might have a shot at breaking Peter Andersson’s 1985 single-tournament points record for blueliners (4+10=14). Full credit to Czech captain Eduard Sale, whose totals (5+2=7) include two game-winners. And to the aforementioned Rimpinen, who’s been a rock for Finland with the top World Junior save percentage (94.0). Sure, I’m hedging my bets, but it could be any of these gentlemen.
One team’s power play is another team’s penalty kill. How important have special teams been?
Aykroyd: Finland’s tournament-leading PK (94.1 percent) has definitely compensated for its dubious power play (11.7 percent). The other three semi-finalists will all punish you with their power plays. Case in point: the Swedes and Czechs both pulled off one-goal quarter-finals victories with PP winners. The way this is going, I wouldn’t rule out the gold medal being decided by special teams.
Podnieks: Goals have not been easy to come by and goalies have been sensational, so every chance a team gets to play with an advantage, it’s an opportunity to change the momentum of a game. To that end, Finland’s power play has been weak and its PK nearly flawless, meaning its games won’t be decided by special teams. That might be a problem. Sweden, meanwhile, has been deadly on the PP, going 8 for 22, but it has also given up 6 goals on only 16 chances, suggesting its games WILL be decided by the extra skater. The Americans are an impressive 7-21 on the PP and middling 4-19 killing penalties, but they are also the highest scoring team in the tournament. Special teams will almost certainly factor into the gold.
Canada. Ouch. What happened?
Podnieks: The problems have been evident for all to see—lack of scoring and undisciplined play. Canada finished with only 13 goals, their lowest total ever in World Juniors (along with the 1998 team). And penalties? Well, they not only become more and more difficult to kill as they accrue; they also stifle momentum, as we saw in the second period against the Americans. This isn’t the be-all and end-all, but the days of Canada winning with anything less than their best have been over for a while now. Was that loss to Latvia more psychologically damaging than we know? Who’s to say? But that excellent 4-0 win over Finland to start the tournament never led to anything more.
Aykroyd: It’s hard to succeed when you rack up 113 PIM in five games – 34 PIM more than Kazakhstan, the team that got relegated. Even so, the Canadians were right there until the last minute against the Czechs. And so you really have to chalk this one up to their inability to execute offensively. Getting just 13 goals on 205 shots – for a tournament-worst 6.34 shooting percentage – is jaw-dropping. By comparison, last year’s Canadian team, which also came fifth after a heartbreaking quarter-finals loss versus Czechia, had 23 goals on 158 shots (14.5 shooting percentage). You can quibble about the roster construction, as Canadian fans do annually given their great depth. But this team on paper, with the likes of Easton Cowan and Gavin McKenna, could have advanced if it could put the puck in the net.
Who is now the gold-medal favourite?
Aykroyd: The Americans are defending champs and haven’t seriously stumbled, unless you count getting outshot 44-33 and beaten 4-3 in overtime by Finland. With 10 returnees from 2024, that’s a whole lot of “been there, won that” experience. Their big players are stepping up at the right time. They’d be my pick.
Podnieks: It’s hard to argue against the U.S. right now. The only other contender I see is Sweden, which would be a re-match from Gothenburg a year ago. No two countries not named Canada have ever played in consecutive gold-medal games at the World Juniors, so if that happened, perhaps the Swedes can channel their inner disappointment from last year and win. But if they do, I would classify it as an upset. The U.S. have to be the favourites now.
There have been many great goalie performances this year. Who in particular has stood out?
Podnieks: This is pretty easy, I think. Although there have been many good games from the blue ice, Linards Feldbergs is in a class by himself. Consider the game against Canada. He stopped 55 of 57 shots over 65 minutes of game action, and then all eight shooters in the penalty-shot shootout. He has faced a whopping 226 shots in five games (an average of 45 a game), way more than second-most by Petteri Rimpinen (FIN, 169). And seven of the 16 goals he allowed were on the opponents’ power play. Best goalie for sure…and maybe some tournament MVP votes as well.
Aykroyd: Agreed. Unless one goalie steals the show in the semi-finals and gold-medal game, it’s Feldbergs. There’s no way the Latvians upset Canada, 3-2, in a shootout if not for his brilliance. Outshot 39-22 by Germany, Latvia could have missed the playoffs if Feldbergs wasn’t dialed in again. And of course, he kept them in versus a superior Sweden team with 47 saves in the quarter-finals. (That said, I will never forget the aggressive pokechecks of Kazakhstan’s Vladimir Nikitin!)
In the first edition we were asked to predict the tournament scoring leader. How’s that going for you?
Aykroyd: Thanks for asking! I picked James Hagens (4+4=8), and the top U.S. centre is tied for second place in points without even having hit top gear yet. A candidate to go #1 overall in the 2025 NHL Draft, Hagens is the most offensively-gifted skater left in our final four. No guarantees, but he’s looking good.
Podnieks: What about the weather here in Ottawa, eh? More rain than snow. The canal isn’t frozen. Ummm…well…ah…I started by saying no d-man would lead the scoring race, but currently Sweden’s Axel Sandin Pellikka is tied for the lead with nine points and American Cole Hutson one back. However, stubborn I am and Yoda-me says it still won’t be a blueliner. Any points leader candidate has two games remaining, tough games, so there won’t be some big explosion of offense. It’s going to be someone near the top today. I’ll go with Gabe Perreault, who has seven points now.
Let’s talk MVP. We’re down to four teams, and the best of the best are going to have to ramp up their play to get the gold. Who will be the Most Valuable Player of the tournament?
Podnieks: I’m going with a little logic here as a starting point. The four remaining goalies are Petteri Rimpinen (FIN), Michael Hrabal (CZE), Trey Augustine (USA), and Melker Thelin (SWE). So, if it’s a USA-SWE final, it makes sense to me it’s one of Augustine or Thelin, and since we’re looking at making the Americans the likely winners, I’ll go with Trey, playing in his third and final World Juniors and looking for a record-tying third medal.
Aykroyd: Hagens is certainly in the mix, but it’s been a special year for defencemen. Without shirking his duties in his own zone, Hagens’ teammate Cole Hutson has hit remarkable offensive heights (2+6=8), and Swedish captain Axel Sandin Pellikka (4+5=9) also might have a shot at breaking Peter Andersson’s 1985 single-tournament points record for blueliners (4+10=14). Full credit to Czech captain Eduard Sale, whose totals (5+2=7) include two game-winners. And to the aforementioned Rimpinen, who’s been a rock for Finland with the top World Junior save percentage (94.0). Sure, I’m hedging my bets, but it could be any of these gentlemen.
One team’s power play is another team’s penalty kill. How important have special teams been?
Aykroyd: Finland’s tournament-leading PK (94.1 percent) has definitely compensated for its dubious power play (11.7 percent). The other three semi-finalists will all punish you with their power plays. Case in point: the Swedes and Czechs both pulled off one-goal quarter-finals victories with PP winners. The way this is going, I wouldn’t rule out the gold medal being decided by special teams.
Podnieks: Goals have not been easy to come by and goalies have been sensational, so every chance a team gets to play with an advantage, it’s an opportunity to change the momentum of a game. To that end, Finland’s power play has been weak and its PK nearly flawless, meaning its games won’t be decided by special teams. That might be a problem. Sweden, meanwhile, has been deadly on the PP, going 8 for 22, but it has also given up 6 goals on only 16 chances, suggesting its games WILL be decided by the extra skater. The Americans are an impressive 7-21 on the PP and middling 4-19 killing penalties, but they are also the highest scoring team in the tournament. Special teams will almost certainly factor into the gold.