Could Sweden win its second consecutive IIHF Ice Hockey U18 World Championship this year on Swiss ice? It’s not out of the question, but recent history suggests it’s unlikely.

This is not to undervalue Sweden’s 8-0 demolition of Canada or its hard-fought 5-3 win over Slovakia. Also, this isn’t about the fact that the Smakronorna had never won the U18 Worlds before triumphing as hosts in Ornskoldsvik in 2019.

Really, it’s a big-picture issue. This tournament has adopted a pattern reminiscent of what happened at the World Juniors from 2010 to 2022, when no nation captured more than one gold medal in a row. The last nation to win back-to-back U18 Worlds was the U.S. (2014, 2015).

Titles have since rotated among the Americans, Canadians, Finns, and Swedes. The increasing parity among these four leading nations makes it harder for one to stay on top, even with Russia’s current exclusion from IIHF competition.

Also, there’s more turnover in talent year to year in a U18 Worlds compared to the World Juniors, where playing three tournaments isn’t unheard of, or the men’s Worlds, where some players (like Switzerland’s Andres Ambuhl) become yearly fixtures.

The deciding factor at the U18 Worlds is typically great talent reaching its potential under a coach who teaches and motivates – rather than, say, implementing a rigorous, air-tight defensive structure. (If you liked Canada’s game plan for men’s hockey at the 2014 Olympics, the U18 Worlds may not be the tournament for you.)

Let’s take a look back at what sunk the defending champs at each U18 Worlds from 2016 onward.

2016: The Power of Puljujarvi

Never was Jesse Puljujarvi’s confidence higher than in 2016. The Karpat right winger took the momentum from his MVP World Junior performance in Helsinki on a line with Sebastian Aho and Patrik Laine and rode it into the U18 Worlds in Grand Forks, North Dakota.

Even though he was only airlifted in for the last four games and was literally sick to his stomach in the late going, “Pulju” dominated. In the 4-2 semi-final ouster of the defending champion U.S., his beautiful cross-seam pass led to Aapeli Rasanen’s winner with 37 seconds left. He then added the last-second empty-netter. The current Carolina Hurricanes forward would shine again with a hat trick in Finland’s 6-1 gold-medal win over Sweden.

2017: Farabee Foils the Finns

Heading into the 2017 U18 Worlds final between the U.S. and Finland in Poprad, Slovakia, it truly was a coin flip. Both powerhouses had won their groups with perfect 4-0 records and survived playoff scares. The defending champion Finns blew a 5-1 quarter-final lead against the Czechs but won 6-5 in overtime, while the U.S. rallied from a 3-2 semi-final deficit against Sweden for a 4-3 sudden-death win.

The difference-maker in the gold medal game was Joel Farabee. He beat Finnish goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukonen five-hole for a 2-0 lead late in the second period and scored the eventual winner shorthanded  at 1:03 of the middle frame. The Americans clamped down for a 4-2 victory.

2018: It’s “KK Time”!

The 2018 final in Chelyabinsk was a true nail-biter as the hyper-talented Americans – headlined by tournament MVP Jack Hughes – looked to pull off a repeat in a rematch with the Finns.

However, Kaapo Kakko – fresh off scoring the World Junior winner in Vancouver versus the U.S. -- staked Finland to a 2-0 first-period lead. After the Americans fought back to tie it up halfway through, Jesperi Kotkaniemi (nicknamed “KK”) set up Niklas Nordgren for a spectacular shorthanded goal off the rush with under 10 minutes left. It was one of the most exciting winners in U18 history.

2019: U.S. Offensive Juggernaut Rolls Over Finland

Sometimes the champ goes out with a whimper instead of a bang. Case in point: the 2019 U18 Worlds quarter-finals.

Jack Hughes scored a hat trick and Trevor Zegras racked up four assists as the Americans ended Finland’s reign with a 6-0 romp in Ornskoldsvik. Goalie Spencer Knight posted a 21-save shutout. However, after falling 3-2 in a shootout heartbreaker versus Russia, the U.S. would ultimately settle for a 5-2 bronze-medal win over Canada.

2021: Canada Way Too Much For Swedes

The saying is, “You’ve got to play a full 60 minutes,” not a “full 40.” In the 2021 semi-finals, Sweden – the 2019 champs – hung tight with Canada through two periods, trailing 2-1. But the Canadians exploded for six unanswered third-period goals, including a pair from the transcendent 15-year-old Connor Bedard, who completed his hat trick.

The Swedes would at least bounce back for an 8-0 bronze medal win over Finland, while the Canadians downed Russia 5-3 for gold.

2022: Finns Rally to Shock Canadians

Canada looked to be sitting pretty when captain Connor Bedard scored shorthanded – his second goal of the night – at 0:21 of the third period to give Canada a 5-3 quarter-final lead over Finland.

But neither another all-team berth nor another gold medal was in the cards for Bedard this year. The Finns roared back to equalize with 1:17 left, as Kasperi Halttunen scored on a 6-on-4 power play with the goalie pulled for an extra skater. Then in overtime, Joakim Kemell pounced on an Adam Fantilli turnover at the Finnish blue line and scored the 6-5 winner on a breakaway just 29 seconds in.